A meaningful college basketball computer rating system must include several factors to evaluate teams. The obvious flaw of the RPI is that it rates teams based only on W/L records and schedule strengths. My system uses 32 factors including scoring margins and results against Top 50 teams. This system is purely statistical and contains no subjective input. All 345 teams are rated. Only Division I results are counted. The ratings are updated every day. Results from the previous season are not used. Commentary and Top-35 predictions will begin October 20, 2012. To view my Computer Ratings, click the link below. The best way to find this website is to type "jimlynchcollegebasketball.com" at the Yahoo or Google search engines or click on the "Lynch" link at Kenneth Massey's Comparative NCAA Basketball Ratings (beginning 1/2/2013). Conference changes for 2012:

Big 12 (10 teams) - adds West Virginia (Big East) and TCU (Mountain West); loses Missouri and Texas A&M to SEC.

SEC (14 teams) - adds Missouri and Texas A&M.

Atlantic 10 (16 teams) adds VCU (Colonial) and Butler (Horizon).

Mountain West (9 teams) adds Fresno St and Nevada both from the Western Athletic.

Western Athletic (10 teams) adds Denver (Sun Belt), Seattle (Ind), Texas-Arlington (Southland), Texas St (Southland) and TX-San Antonio (Southland).

Big West (10 teams) adds Hawaii (Western Athletic)

Summit (9 teams) adds Nebraska-Omaha (Ind).

Ohio Valley (12 teams) adds Belmont (Atlantic Sun).

Big South (12 teams) adds Longwood (Ind).

Atlantic Sun (10 teams) adds Northern Kentucky (DivII).

Big Sky (11 teams) adds North Dakota (Great West) and Southern Utah (Summit).

Southland (10 teams) adds Oral Roberts (Summit).

Independent (2 teams) adds New Orleans

In addition to team ratings, this system can be used to predict game margins. For example, Indiana (rating of 64.0) plays at Iowa (rating of 65.3). My average home court advantage is 4 points so add 4.0 to Iowa's rating which becomes 69.3. Subtract Iowa's rating (69.3) from Indiana's rating (64.0) and Iowa has a margin of 5.5 points (round off to the nearest 0.5 point) over Indiana.

To update team ratings, I use the The Sports Network for daily game scores. This is just a simple list of all the college basketball scores. It is quick to get into and is unencumbered by details of the complicated and time consuming sites such as ESPN, CBS Sports, etc. For complete records of all game results and conference standings, I use the Yahoo! Sports site. Again, this site is quick to access, uncomplicated and accurate.

There are many good college basketball rating systems today. How does my system stand up? The best way to evaluate a system is to compare predictions to the Vegas lines. Last season (2009-2010) my system was 58% vs 982 Vegas spreads and 52% for the NCAA Tournament spreads. The VegasInsider.com site (odds) is used for the Vegas spreads. My lines are rounded off to the nearest 0.5 point. Pushed games (Vegas line and the final scoring margin are identical), of course, are not counted. Spreads of teams with recent key injuries are not calculated either. To determine my spread, simply subtract the two teams' ratings and add 4 points to the home team. My record vs Vegas is listed in my Commentary section each time the site is updated beginning around December 15, 2012. All spreads from the VegasInsider.com site are used. I use the latest spreads just before game time.

Sports gambling is not recommended and visitors to this site are responsible for their own actions.

College Basketball Game Times:

A lot of games, if not most, are running over two hours by 10-15 minutes. Some of it is due to that bane of rational thinking - commercials. Officials are now reviewing three point shots and clock checks. But many game over-runs are caused when players foul out teams essentially take a time-out. This should not happen. Teams are also taking more time for time-outs. Officials should give a "T" to a team that over-runs time-outs after a warning. Just a thought.

Big East Non-Conference games:

The Big East rarely schedules tough non-confernce games, especially Syracuse. You would think they would want to be challenged before conference play begins.

 

Selection Committee: importance of early season non-conference games:

The NCAA Tournament selection committee gives a lot of emphasis on top teams scheduled in non-conference play. Frankly, like the RPI, this is stupid. Coaches are adjusting strategies and player minutes at this time. When conference play begins, where the real emphasis should be placed, coaches study films of opponents and determine weaknesses and strengths. Last year, Colorado St was example. It is just flawed thinking.

 

My Top Four Tournament Seeds and Teams:

According to my system, top seeds are Florida, Indiana, Gonzaga and Duke right now. I do not think Gonzaga will go that far because the WCC isn't that strong and their guard play is suspect. Look what Illinois did to them at home. But, that was early. A sleeper team is the St Louis Billikens. The following teams should be in (before Conference Tournament games):

 

Big Ten: Indiana, Michigan St, Ohio St, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota (7). Hawkeyes selection depends on how they do in the Conference Tournament. They beat Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota and had very close losses to Indiana, Michigan St, Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Iowa at (9-9) in the Conference (20-11) finished ahead of Illinois and Minnesota. They continued to improve as their season progressed. Their non-confernce play should not matter.

Big East: Louisville, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Syracuse, Cincinnati ?, Notre Dame and Villanova (8)

ACC: Duke, Miami-Florida, North Carolina, NC St and Virginia ? (5)

SEC: Florida, Mississippi, Alabama ? , Missouri and Tennessee ? (5)

Pac-12: UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, and California (5)

Big-12: Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Iowa St and Oklahoma (5)

Atlantic Ten: St Louis, VCU, Butler, Temple and La Salle? (5)

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee St (19-1) Conference, (28-5) overall. Even though the Blue Raiders did not win its Conference Tournament, I'll wager because of the stupid reasoning of the Committee they won't be selected. This team played Florida (lost), Arkansas (lost in OT), Mississippi (won), Belmont (lost) and Vanderbilt (won).

 

Tournament Thoughts:

To show how stupid the RPI is, it rated the Mountain West Conference as the top conference in the nation. None of them made it to the Sweet Sixteen.

The Atlantic Ten is a tough conference this year: La Salle is a Sweet Sixteen team. Who knows what will happen after re-alignment next year?

Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun and a #15 seed) spanked Georgetown and San Diego St.

 

 

Key Games - March 19, 2013:

North Carolina A&T 73 vs Liberty 72

St Marys 67 vs Middle Tennessee St 64

Key Games - March 20, 2013:

Long Island 55 vs James Madison 68

La Salle 80 vs Boise St 71

Key Games - March 21, 2013:

Valparaiso 54 vs Michigan St 65

Bucknell 56 vs Butler 68

Wichita St 73 vs Pittsbugh 55

New Mexico St 44 vs St Louis 64

St Marys 52 vs Memphis 54

Davidson 58 vs Marquette 59

Southern U 58 vs Gonzaga 64

Oregon 68 vs Oklahoma St 55

NC A&T 48 vs Louisville 79

South Dakota St 56 vs Michigan 71

Belmont 64 vs Arizona 81

California 64 vs UNLV 61

Missouri 84 vs Colorado St 72

Akron 42 vs VCU 88

Harvard 68 vs New Mexico 62

Montana 34 vs Syracuse 81

Key Games - March 22, 2013:

Albany 61 vs Duke 73

Mississippi 57 vs Wisconsin 46

Temple 76 vs North Carolina St 72

Pacific 49 vs Miami-Florida 78

Cincinnati 63 vs Creighton 67

La Salle 63 vs Kansas St 61

James Madison 62 vs Indiana 83

Colorado 49 vs Illinois 57

Florida Gulf Coast 78 vs Georgetown 68 (typical - the great Big East had 8 teams selected, 5 teams out in the first round)

Ions 70 vs Ohio St 95

Villanova 71 vs North Carolina 78

Northwestern St 47 vs Florida 79

Oklahoma 55 vs San Diego St 70

Iowa St 58 vs Notre Dame 76

Western Kentucky 57 vs Kansas 64

Minnesota 83 vs UCLA 63

Key Games - March 23, 2013:

VCU 53 vs Michigan 78

Memphis 48 vs Michigan St 70

Colorado St 56 vs Louisville 82

Harvard 51 vs Arizona 74

Oregon 57 vs St Louis 74

Butler 72 vs Marquette 74

Wichita St 76 vs Gonzaga 70

California 60 vs Syracuse 66

Key Games - March 24, 2013:

Iowa St 75 vs Ohio St 78

Temple 52 vs Indiana 58

North Carolina 58 vs Kansas 70

Minnesota 64 vs Florida 78

Florida Gulf Coast 81 vs San Diego St 71

La Salle 76 vs Mississippi 74

Illinois 59 vs Miami-Florida 63

Creighton 50 vs Duke 66

Key Games - March 28, 2013:

Marquette 71 vs Miami-Florida 61

Arizona 70 vs Ohio St 73

Syracuse 61 vs Indiana 50

La Salle 58 vs Wichita St 72

Key Games - March 29, 2013:

Oregon 69 vs Louisville 77

Kansas 85 vs Michigan 87 (OT)

Michigan St 61 vs Duke 71

Florida Gulf Coast 50 vs Florida 62

Key Games - March 30, 2013:

Marquette 39 vs Syracuse 55

Wichita St 70 vs Ohio St 66

Key Games - March 31, 2013:

Michigan 79 vs Florida 59

Duke 63 vs Louisville 85

Key Games - April 2, 2013:

BYU 70 vs Baylor 76 (NIT)

Maryland 60 vs Iowa 71 (NIT)

Key Games - April 4, 2013:

Baylor 74 vs Iowa 54 (NIT)

Key Games - April 6, 2013:

Syracuse 56 vs Michigan 61

Wichita St 68 vs Louisville 72

Key Games - April 8, 2013:

Louisville vs Michigan

 

My Pre-season Top 35 Predictions:

 

1) Indiana

2) Louisville

3) Kansas

4) Kentucky

5) Ohio St

6) Florida

7) Minnesota (loaded-everybody back)

8) Syracuse

9) Arizona

10) Virginia Commonwealth

11) Cincinnati

12) North Carolina St

13) Michigan St

14) Michigan (lose two key seniors)

15) North Carolina

16) Baylor

17) Duke

18) UCLA

19) Iowa St

20) Gonzaga

21) Memphis

22) San Diego St

23) Tennessee

24) Missouri

25) Creighton

26) Alabama

27) Florida St

28) Murray St

29) Marquette

30) Notre Dame

31) New Mexico

32) Georgetown

33) Middle Tennessee St

34) Wisconsin

35) Kansas St

 

Keys to Success - Factors that Make a Winning Program:

1) A coach that can recruit smart, talented players and is a great strategist. If I were an AD, I would chose Bill Self, Mike Krzyzewski, Tom Izzo, John Calipari or Billy Donovan.

2) Recruit an effective, quick point guard that can penetrate, score and is a leader. This is almost as important as coaching.

3) Have an inside player, say 6'9"/230lbs, who can really rebound and defend - Izzo is a master at this.

4) Design an offense where players are always moving - I see too many players standing around.

5) Good free throw shooting. This is a gift and many teams (much more than you would think) lose games by not shooting free throws effectively.

6) Have at least one player who can drive to the basket effectively. Usually only good things happen - the driver is fouled, makes a basket or passes to an open player for an easy shot.

7) Try to eliminate bad choices (inappropriate shots) particularly at crucial points in a game. I see this in NBA games all the time.

 

NBA Rosters - Players Native to Most Populous States (2012) - another favorite saying by college basketball announcers is: there are so many great and tough players coming out of New York. The only way to determine state output of quality players is to refer to current NBA rosters for players native to the most populous states. Key players are ones who have at least 13 pts/game or at least 7 rebs/game. Refer to the table below:

 

State	Population	TotalPlayers	Key Players	Total Players/ Million	Key Players/ Million
California	37.3 million	58	16	1.55	0.43
Texas	25.1 million	27	7	1.08	0.28
New York	19.4 million	25	5	1.29	0.26
Florida	18.8 million	18	4	0.96	0.21
Illinois	12.8 million	27	7	2.11	0.55

 

Obviously, Ilinois is a hotbead of quality high school basketball players. I have never ever heard this fact mentioned. Illinois players include MVP's Dwayne Wade and Derrick Rose; Davis will be the #1 pick in the 2012 NBA draft. Ironically, Kansas and Kentucky which are steeped in college basketball tradition have 2 total and 0 key players and 3 total and 1 key players respectively. Louisiana (4.6 million) has the most total players (3.04) and the most key players (1.30).

 

My Record vs Vegas (2012-2013):

1/22: 9/11 (81.8%)

1/23: 23/45 (51.1%)

1/24: 32/47 (68.1%) Cum since 1/1/13 (57.5%)

1/25: 1/5 (20.0%) Cum: 460/803 (57.3%)

1/26: 49/89 (55.1%) Cum: 509/892 (57.1%)

1/27: 10/19 (52.6%) Cum: 519/911 (57.0%)

1/28: 4/6 (66.7%) Cum: 523/917 (57.0%)

1/29: 6/11 (54.5%) Cum: 529/928 (57.0%)

1/30: 24/41 (58.5%) Cum: 553/969 (57.1%)

1/31: 25/38 (65.8%) Cum: 578/1007 (57.4%)

2/1: 4/8 (50.0%) Cum: 582/1015 (57.3%)

2/2: 60/101 (59.4%) Cum: 642/1116 (57.5%)

2/3: 3/8 (37.5%) Cum: 645/1124 (57.4%)

2/4: 6/10 (60.0%) Cum: 651/1134 (57.4%)

2/5: 6/15 (40.0%) Cum: 657/1149 (57.2%)

2/6: 20/39 (51.3%) Cum: 677/1188 (57.0%)

2/7: 31/45 (68.9%) Cum: 708/1233 (57.4%)

2/8: 2/3 (66.7%) Cum: 710/1236 (57.4%) (no Ivy League spreads are calculated, too erratic)

2/9: 54/88 (61.4%) Cum: 764/1324 (57.7%)

2/10: 13/19 (68.4%) Cum: 777/1343 (57.9%)

2/11: 5/9 (55.6%) Cum: 782/1352 (57.8%)

2/12: 8/11 (72.7%) Cum: 790/1363 (58.0%)

2/13: 27/42 (64.3%) Cum: 817/1405 (58.1%)

2/14: 34/50 (68.0%) Cum: 851/1455 (58.5%)

2/15: 4/5 (80.0%) Cum: 855/1460 (58.6%)

2/16: 56/94 (59.6%) Cum: 911/1554 (58.6%) (started terribly but ended well)

2/17: 12/16 (75.0%) Cum: 923/1570 (58.8%)

2/18: 5/9 (55.6%) Cum: 928/1579 (58.8%)

2/19: 10/18 (55.5%) Cum: 938/1597 (58.7%)

2/20: 22/40 (55.0%) Cum: 960/1637 (58.6%) (several key injuries)

2/21: 13/20 (65.0%) Cum: 973/1657 (58.7%)

2/22: 3/3 (100.0%) Cum: 976/1660 (58.8%)

2/23: 56/100 (56.0%) Cum: 1032/1760 (58.6%) (several pushes and key injuries)

2/24: 8/13 (61.5%) Cum: 1040/1773 (58.7%)

2/25: 3/4 (75.0%) Cum: 1043/1777 (58.7%)

2/26: 6/10 (60.0%) Cum: 1049/1787 (58.7%)

2/27: 28/42 (66.7%) Cum: 1077/1829 (58.9%)

2/28: 21/37 (56.8%) Cum: 1098/1866 (58.8%) (several key injuries; spreads of Mid-American teams will not be calculated: too erratic)

3/1: 2/2 (100.0%) Cum: 1100/1868 (58.9%) (1 push)

3/2: 49/90 (54.4%) Cum: 1149/1958 (58.7%)

3/3: 7/12 (58.3%) Cum: 1156/1970 (58.7%)

3/4: 3/5 (60.0%) Cum: 1159/1975 (58.7%) (from now on no Big Sky spreads will be calculated)

3/5: 7/18 (38.9%) Cum: 1166/1993 (58.5%)

3/6: 23/41 (56.1%) Cum: 1189/2034 (58.5%)

3/7: 12/27 (44.4%) Cum: 1201/2061 (58.3%)

3/8: 15/22 (68.2%) Cum: 1216/2083 (58.4%)

3/9: 53/97 (54.6%) Cum: 1269/2180 (58.2%)

3/10: 11/20 (55.0%) Cum: 1280/2200 (58.2%)

3/11: 5/8 (62.5%) Cum: 1285/2208 (58.2%)

3/12: 7/11 (63.6%) Cum: 1292/2219 (58.2%)

3/13: 10/19 (52.6%) Cum: 1302/2238) (58.2%)

3/14: 31/45 (68.9%) Cum: 1333/2283 (58.4%)

3/15: 27/37 (73.0%) Cum: 1360/2320 (58.6%)

3/16: 10/20 (50.0%) Cum: 1370/2340 (58.5%)

3/17: 2/4 (50.0%) Cum: 1372/2344 (58.5%)

3/19: 2/2 (100.0%) NCAA

3/19: 12/20 (60.0%) Cum: 1384/2364 (58.5%)

3/20: 11/22 (50.0%) Cum: 1395/2386 (58.5%)

3/20: 1/1 (100.0%) NCAA Cum: 3/3 (100.0%)

3/21: 6/16 (37.5%) Cum: 1401/2402 (58.3%)

3/21: 6/15 NCAA (40.0%) Cum: 9/18 (50.0%)

3/22: 10/16 (62.5%) Cum: 1411/2418 (58.4%)

3/22: NCAA: 8/14 (57.1%) Cum: 18/33 (54.5%)

3/23: 7/15 (46.7%) Cum: 1418/2433 (58.3%)

3/23: NCAA: 4/8 (50.0%) Cum: 22/41 (53.7%)

3/24: 5/10 (50.0%) Cum: 1423/2443 (58.2%)

3/24: NCAA: 4/8 (50.0%) Cum: 26/49 (53.1%)

3/25: 5/8 (62.5%) Cum: 1428/2451 (58.3%)

3/26: 3/4 (75.0%) Cum: 1431/2455 (58.3%)

3/27: 1/5 (20.0%) Cum: 1432/2460 (58.2%)

3/28: 1/4 (25.0%) Cum: 1433/2464 (58.2%)

3/28: NCAA: 1/4 (25.0%) Cum: 27/53 (50.9%)

3/29: 1/4 (25.0%) Cum: 1334/2468 (58.1%)

3/29: NCAA: 1/4 (25.0%) Cum: 28/57 (49.1%)

3/30: 1/4 (25.0%) Cum: 1435/2472 (58.1%)

3/30: NCAA: 0/2 (0.0%) Cum: 28/59 (47.5%)

3/31: 1/2 (50.0%) Cum: 1436/2474 (58.0%)

3/31: NCAA: 1/2 (50.0%) Cum: 29/61 (47.5%)

4/1: 1/1 (100.0%) Cum: 1437/2475 (58.1%)

4/2: 1/3 (33.3%) Cum: 1438/2478 (58.0%)

4/5: 1/3 (33.3%) Cum: 1439/2481 (58.0%)

4/6: 1/2 (50.0%) Cum: 1440/2483 (58.0%)

4/6: NCAA: 1/2 (50.0%) Cum: 30/63 (47.6%)

 

My Top Ten Conference Performances (2012-2013 season); updated 2/25/13:

Conference	Teams	Current Rating
BIG TEN	12	32.02
ACC	12	30.38
MWC	9	30.18
PAC 12	12	29.03
BIG EAST	15	28.29
BIG 12	10	28.09
SEC	14	22.64
MVC	10	22.58
WCC	10	21.20
ATEN	16	18.79

 

My Best Coaches: This is more about being successful with the talent a coach has and less about recruiting. Players will go to Kentucky and North Carolina no matter who the coach is. Calipari is an exception. He is a great recruiter and an excellent coach, so his teams will always be among the top five in the country.

1) Bill Self (Kansas)

2) Mike Krzyzewski (Duke)

3) John Calipari (Kentucky)

4) Billy Donovan (Florida)

5) Tom Izzo (Michigan St)

6) Mark Few (Gonzaga)

7) Brad Stevens (Butler) Two consecutive Final Fours.

8) Buzz Williams (Marquette)

9) Shaka Smart (VCU)

10) Thad Matta (Ohio St)

11) Rick Pitino (Louisville)

12) Bo Ryan (Wisconsin)

13) Jim Boeheim (Syracuse)

14) Sean Miller (Arizona)

15) Dana Altman (Oregon)

16) Tom Crean (Indiana)

17) Roy Williams (North Carolina)

18) Jamie Dixon (Pittsburgh)

19) Fred Hoiberg (Iowa St)

20) Fran McCaffery (Iowa)

 

 

April 9, 2013 (Ratings, Scores and Commentary)

 

 

Read analyses by college basketball expert Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News.

Click the important links to review sites such as Kenneth Massey's computer ratings. See his comparisons of other ratings including Sagarin, etc.

Any comments? I look forward to your responses. My e-mail address is y22_hz_n@lakeland.ws

 

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©Jim Lynch, 2006
Last revised: April 07, 2013.